Vol. 74 No. 1 (2026): NAMES: A Journal of Onomastics
Articles

Rhymed and Framed Couplets : The Agenda-setting Bumper Sticker Effect Prediction Model for Presidential Election Winners, 1840–2024

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  • Thomas C. Terry
Thomas C. Terry
Utah State University
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5195/names.2026.2806

Published 2026-03-10

Keywords

  • US presidents,
  • elections,
  • rhymed and framed couplets,
  • anthropology,
  • bumper sticker effect,
  • running mates,
  • cognitive linguistics,
  • anthroponymy
    • ...More
    Less

Copyright (c) 2026 Thomas Terry

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Abstract

Presidential candidates engage in long deliberations trying to balance the ticket to give them the best chance of winning. This study argues that the choice of a vice-presidential running mate is far simpler and more elegant than any of the complex variables often part of a vice-presidential decision . . . and fits onto a metaphorical bumper sticker. The Bumper Sticker Effect model has predicted the winning candidate in 44 of the last 46 presidential elections (95.60 percent since 1840), based on the differential in letter length between presidential and vice-presidential candidate last names. To win, the presidential winner’s name must either exceed the vice president’s or be no more than two letters shorter. Voters appear to perceive cognitively that the presidential candidate is overawed when the VP’s name dominates. An Amazon Mechanical Turk online survey largely confirmed the theory. The study concluded that Tim Scott, J. D. Vance, or Kristi Noem would be the most numerically advantageous running mates for Donald Trump in the 2024 election, while the Biden-Harris pairing remained a winning combination as did the eventual Harris-Walz ticket.

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